2013 included continued milestones in major urban trends.
- Urbanization of the global population.
- Acceleration of climate change.
- More crazy (and expensive) weather records being set and broken.
- Challenges and progress in the global food supply.
- Continued evolution of transportation technology.
- Increased attention to maintaining a cheap supply of fossil fuels.
- Growing attention to human rights in the economy.
- Increased attention being paid to human health and disease.
- Continued attention to the aging demographic in most communities.
- An acceleration of the problems caused by aging infrastructure.
- A relentless focus on tax cutting causing an underfunding of government programs and infrastructure.
- A continued focus on enhancing trade and economic development to the point where Canada declared in 2013 that “trade” is now our only foreign policy.
In the context of these significant ongoing trends, what can we see ahead in 2014?
Until a new definition of our national collectivity is articulated, the political shrinking of government’s role in our economy and lives will continue. This will ensure minimal drags on economic activity but may not result in more prosperous, stable or healthy communities everywhere.
This fact is key when considering the future for a community when the predominant assumption is that a rising economic tide will lift “all” boats. It is widely visible now that this assumption isn’t automatically true – it is only true for those communities who happen to be located such that they benefit. Others may get nothing or may decline.
In the business world the market disciplines us all to be focused, innovative and work hard. If a business fails, it is tragic but amoral – just a cause and effect process of generally equal players in the market. However, the global economic patterns hit communities just as hard as companies – except a community cannot physically move or be very agile – and it has many deep impacts on the place and its people.
While we are most all in favor of increased economic activity and a free market, we have to recognize that global political and economic trends are increasingly blind to the qualities, needs and realities of smaller cities and communities.
In the face of an increasing level of mobility of populations, finance, and culture, the future of smaller cities and communities lies in their own hands – and therefore success will lie in whether they can be creative and proactive. Whether 2014 is a step upward for your community or another year of dreams but not really going anywhere (or worse, downhill) will be directly related to the ability of the leadership to be creative and achieve the following:
- Consciously targeting and enhancing local trade between businesses within the community to ensure maximum local economic activity because you may not get your share of increased global trade;
- Supporting local eccentricity that differentiates your community from all the others in your region through culture and events and urban form;
- Articulating local values to build pride and identity in the community;
- Building volunteer stewardship networks to support community goods that taxes cannot directly pay for;
- Building local social networks that combat crime and reduce law and order costs;
- Actively encouraging the life inside buildings to “come outside” so the vitality factor of the community goes up;
- Enhancing the visibility of all aspects of the local food system as it is a major economic factor and one of the most important in a community’s culture; and
- Not just trying to be “as-good-as” other communities, but trying to be “different” than them – in a way that will attract those who will drive the culture and economy of the future – because if there is a key point of competition between communities, it is fundamentally for the families and businesses of these current and future leaders.
I find it ironic that while I am a businessman and developer working in a global real estate and financial market that my observations above sound “alternative” and out of the “main stream” economic language. I think this is because in today’s global political and economic context many can do well, but the deck is correspondingly stacked against many communities whose fundamentals do not match the global economic success equation.
In this context, while the stock market, federal governments or large financial institutions’ can focus on the global context and promise benefits to all from this approach, no community should automatically assume they will reap any of these benefits – they may in fact experience the underbelly of that progress.
Since we do not want to simply pour tax dollars into subsidizing communities that are under-performing or worse dying, the future vitality of most all communities lies in their own entrepreneurialism and creativity – just like any corporation. And as with anything in life, no one else is going to do it for you. Each community is going to have to do it for themselves.
2014 – a new year. A new chapter full of both threats and opportunities. And as with any company in the market, communities that have the creativity, discipline and teamwork to take control of their own destinies with a strong accurate vision will thrive.